Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.008930 0.010067 0.011296 0.012724 0.014338 0.016107 0.018193
2026-01-18 0.007024 0.008563 0.010364 0.012629 0.015406 0.018703 0.022925
2026-01-25 0.005972 0.007687 0.009805 0.012619 0.016270 0.020857 0.027080
2026-02-01 0.005154 0.006931 0.009226 0.012416 0.016750 0.022453 0.030563
2026-02-08 0.004626 0.006462 0.008926 0.012487 0.017524 0.024425 0.034653
2026-02-15 0.004146 0.005990 0.008551 0.012384 0.018003 0.025984 0.038260
2026-02-22 0.003856 0.005747 0.008458 0.012646 0.018991 0.028309 0.043144
2026-03-01 0.003431 0.005259 0.007955 0.012243 0.018940 0.029074 0.045723
2026-03-08 0.003110 0.004893 0.007594 0.012008 0.019100 0.030142 0.048827
2026-03-15 0.002811 0.004533 0.007206 0.011689 0.019083 0.030908 0.051482
2026-03-22 0.002704 0.004466 0.007269 0.012088 0.020246 0.033639 0.057586
2026-03-29 0.002577 0.004353 0.007244 0.012335 0.021167 0.036035 0.063316
2026-04-05 0.002463 0.004256 0.007244 0.012630 0.022210 0.038745 0.069892
2026-04-12 0.002291 0.004045 0.007032 0.012541 0.022574 0.040310 0.074568
2026-04-19 0.002149 0.003874 0.006875 0.012531 0.023069 0.042136 0.079871
2026-04-26 0.001991 0.003661 0.006625 0.012329 0.023192 0.043284 0.083982
2026-05-03 0.001888 0.003539 0.006528 0.012400 0.023823 0.045418 0.090172
2026-05-10 0.001769 0.003379 0.006349 0.012298 0.024110 0.046912 0.095217
2026-05-17 0.001708 0.003323 0.006358 0.012557 0.025121 0.049886 0.103515
2026-05-24 0.001570 0.003107 0.006046 0.012157 0.024780 0.050143 0.106196
2026-05-31 0.001464 0.002945 0.005826 0.011924 0.024755 0.051029 0.110270
2026-06-07 0.001357 0.002774 0.005575 0.011607 0.024527 0.051472 0.113415
2026-06-14 0.001333 0.002771 0.005664 0.012003 0.025839 0.055252 0.124257